Is the US labor market strong or weak?
Here is the position of the most important indicators, expressed in percentile space (= where are they relative to their distribution since 2010).
mini-thread
Here is the position of the most important indicators, expressed in percentile space (= where are they relative to their distribution since 2010).
mini-thread
Many key indicators are very strong (= close to the high end of the distribution observed since 2010).
This includes:
- unemployment rate (=low)
- continuing claims (=low)
- challenger layoffs (=low)
- NFT (=high)
All of these are in the 90th percentile or better vs history
This includes:
- unemployment rate (=low)
- continuing claims (=low)
- challenger layoffs (=low)
- NFT (=high)
All of these are in the 90th percentile or better vs history
Other indicators have been softer, including:
- household survey
- employment indicators within PMIs/ISMs
But NOTE how these softer indicators have bounced lately (including importantly yesterday's ISM). The bad indicators are not as bad any more!!!
- household survey
- employment indicators within PMIs/ISMs
But NOTE how these softer indicators have bounced lately (including importantly yesterday's ISM). The bad indicators are not as bad any more!!!
https://twitter.com/jnordvig/status/1565356760373796864
All told, many US labor indicators remain very strong, and the ones that looked the most problematic a few months are ago, are bouncing.
=> there is really nothing to make the Fed relax and pivot.
I will leave it at that. END
=> there is really nothing to make the Fed relax and pivot.
I will leave it at that. END
(and good luck with the NFP later today)
Ups: NFT=NFP
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